Mike
Murphy, the successful and shrewd Republican media strategist, is a
heretic within his own party. Sensitive to the near-universal reverence
Republicans of all ages pay to the legacy and presidency of Ronald
Reagan, Murphy bluntly warns his fellow GOPers that -- given the
profound, and continuing, demographic changes over the past three
decades -- Ronald Reagan would have a tough time beating Jimmy Carter
today. Consider this reality. In his 1980 race against President
Carter, when Gov. Reagan won 56 percent of the nation's white vote,
whites comprised 88 percent of the total national electorate. Simply
stated, Reagan's 1980 share of the white vote alone constituted 49.3
percent of all voters. This meant that for the Gipper to achieve his
overall 51 percent majority he simply had to earn the support of one
out of seven non-white voters -- which is what he did. But by 2008,
enormous changes were taking place. The white share of the national
vote had fallen to 74 percent. So Reagan's 56 percent share of that
group would have translated into just 41.2 percent of all voters.
Demographic shifts, by themselves, would have subtracted more than 8
percentage points from Ronald Reagan's 1980 victory margin. Mike
Murphy uses facts such as these as a reminder that nobody can live in
the past and succeed politically. Having worked for a couple of dozen
Republican candidates -- including John McCain, Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush
and Arnold Schwarzenegger -- Murphy has real credibility when he warns
his party that anti-immigrant rhetoric of the variety heard from --
mostly losing -- Republican candidates in 2008 and 2010 could doom the
party of Abraham Lincoln and Reagan to permanent minority status. Consider
California, where Murphy now lives. In 2008, whites were just 63
percent of the total state vote. African-American, Latino, Asian and
other totaled 37 percent. By Murphy's calculations, unless Republicans
can dramatically improve their following among those groups of voters
(whom Barack Obama carried collectively by more than 75 percent),
Republican candidates will be required to win a minimum two out of
three California white votes in order to win a statewide election. In
2008, John McCain received 46 percent of the votes of white
Californians. California is a case study of what can happen. Between
1948 and 1992, the Republicans carried the Golden State in every
presidential election -- except for LBJ's 1964 landslide. But since
then, the Democrats have carried California in five consecutive
presidential elections. In a reminder of political consequences,
Republicans should remember that Pete Wilson used menacing TV spots
featuring footage of illegal immigrants to win re-election while
endorsing Proposition 187, which banned undocumented immigrants from
receiving public services, including public education or medical care. As
2008 could very well turn out, that 1994 campaign provided a short-term
political advantage to Wilson and the GOP. But two years later, two
committed civil-rights Republicans on the national ticket, Bob Dole and
Jack Kemp, won barely one out of five Latino votes in California, while
losing the state. Since Proposition 187, no California Republican has
won a U.S. Senate race. Even more alarming for Republicans, the
white share of the overall U.S. population is predicted by Census
projections to drop to 60 percent by 2020. Another cautionary note: The
lion's share of the Latino growth over the next generation will not
come from immigration but rather from the children of past immigrants
who already live here. In fact, Democratic pollster Peter Hart
predicts that Texas -- the reddest Republican of the nation's big
states -- will, because of its fast-growing Hispanic population, by
2024 -- just four presidential elections away -- have become a
Democratic blue state. Over the remaining three and a half months of
the 2010 campaign, the future competitiveness of the Republican Party
nationally may well hinge on whether GOP candidates can resist in these
difficult economic times the cheap demagoguery of immigrant-blaming and
instead seek common cause with the new and ever-changing American
electorate.
To find out more about Mark Shields and read his past columns, visit the Creators Syndicate web page at www.creators.com. DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM COPYRIGHT 2010 MARK SHIELDS
